Borders and Balances: India’s Power Play with China and Trump
Borders and Balances: India’s Power Play with China and Trump
Embedded Files
THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN PURELY AS AN OPINION OF CURRENT AFFAIRS BY THE AUTHOR
Share this article!
30 August 2025
Last Updated: 20 August 2025 - 16:58 IST
Chaitanya Nitin Harak
PM Modi and President Jinping in Wuhan, China, 2018 | MEA Photo Gallery
In geopolitics, borders are more than lines on a map; they are symbols of sovereignty, pride, and survival. For India, the Himalayan frontier with China — scarred by the 1962 war, scarred again in Galwan in 2020, and left unsettled in Aksai Chin — remains the most unyielding test of its diplomacy. No government in Delhi, of any ideology, can afford to lose ground there. The border, frozen or contested, will dictate every other calculation.
The latest signals from Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Tokyo confirm this reality. His speech, wrapped in Indo-Pacific solidarity, carried a strong undercurrent of posturing. India will deepen its presence with Japan, Australia, and the U.S., but only on its own terms. What Modi effectively sketched out was the policy path forward: China will keep probing, India will not retreat, but Delhi will stop short of confrontation. The future is a cold peace — one where the Line of Actual Control remains tense but immobile, while trade, connectivity, and growth cautiously resume.
The Cold Peace with China
Beijing’s strategy is unlikely to change: pushing at the margins, testing the LAC, and expanding infrastructure in contested zones, all while betting on India’s caution. Delhi, for its part, will not abandon its hard-won positions. Aksai Chin is Indian territory — occupied, but never conceded. No government in Delhi can afford to barter it away. That is why India will accept nothing less than a frozen border at the minimum — an uneasy stillness, but one that prevents escalation.
The same caution defines economics. Trade with China remains necessary, yet Delhi is determined to reduce one-sided dependence. Since 2020, all Chinese FDI must pass government scrutiny, a filter India has no intention of loosening. Proposals will continue to be screened, indirect stakes monitored, and sensitive sectors ring-fenced. At the same time, India seeks “equalization”: fewer cheap imports that undercut domestic industry and more investment that builds manufacturing capacity at home.
To support this, Modi has begun simplifying India’s business environment — cutting compliance burdens, digitizing approvals, and signalling that India wants to be the anchor of alternative supply chains. The strategy is not to sever ties with China but to reset them on firmer terms: a frozen border at the minimum, and a managed, more balanced economic relationship in the marketplace.
Trump’s Antics and Post-Fact Rationalizations
All of this unfolds against the background noise of Washington. Donald Trump’s team has once again turned its gaze eastward, slapping tariffs and then scrambling for post-facto justifications. The favorite excuse this time — that the tariffs are about oil flows and global energy security — is little more than political cover. These are not carefully designed instruments of statecraft; they are campaign theatrics dressed up as policy, meant for domestic applause lines rather than global strategy.
Trump’s foreign policy is once again best summed up by the single acronym: TACO — Trump Always Chickens Out. He talks tough, but when confronted with the hard choices of statecraft, he retreats. We saw it with North Korea, where the grand photo-ops dissolved into nothing. We saw it with NATO, where bluster gave way to half-measures. And we see it most starkly with Russia. In Ukraine, Trump has once again TACO’d — loudly demanding peace without a credible plan, ducking responsibility when pressed on details, and finally shifting the blame elsewhere in a desperate attempt to save face.
Now, that blame has landed on India. Trump’s astonishing claim that Indian oil trade somehow sustains Moscow’s war effort is not only false but insulting. It ignores the reality that Europe, not India, was the primary consumer of Russian energy until recently. It sidesteps the fact that India’s purchases are marginal in comparison and conducted entirely within the boundaries of international law. It also conveniently ignores the quiet but real bilateral trade that the U.S. itself continues with Russia — including purchases of minerals and other commodities essential for its own economy. To pin the Ukraine war on Delhi is pure nonsense — a transparent attempt to manufacture a scapegoat.
President Trump signing documents | White House Press Office
This is the essence of the TACO pattern. Trump makes noise, ducks the consequences, and then tries to rewrite the narrative at someone else’s expense. It is not strategy; it is theatre. And while India can shrug off the bluster, the wider world should take note: the United States, under a TACO presidency, is not a reliable partner in the serious business of managing great power competition.
A Policy of Patience
India, fortunately, does not need to meet Trump blow for blow. His tariffs and accusations may draw headlines, but they do not alter Delhi’s grand strategy. India knows where the real structural contest lies: not with America, but with China. That rivalry is both territorial and economic, stretching from the icy ridges of Aksai Chin to the arteries of global supply chains. The way forward is not through reaction, but through patience — freezing the border, recalibrating trade on harder terms, and building the internal capacity to withstand shocks.
Modi’s Tokyo visit underlined this duality. Far from a one-dimensional tilt toward Washington, it produced a 10-year India–Japan joint vision, new security and economic cooperation frameworks, and a major push for Japanese investment — while Modi simultaneously spoke of multipolarity and autonomy in his Nikkei interview. The optics were of alignment with the Quad, but the substance was hedging: reinforcing ties with like-minded partners, while keeping maneuvering space intact.
In practice, Delhi’s approach unfolds in three deliberate steps:
Border Freeze: No barter over Aksai Chin, no cosmetic “peace deal” at the LAC. The minimum is a frozen line — cold, uneasy, scarred, but stable. Escalation is avoided, but surrender is off the table.
Trade Equalization: Commerce with China cannot be severed, but it will not return to pre-2020 normalcy. Every Chinese investment must now pass through government clearance, reflecting deep suspicion of Beijing’s leverage. Delhi wants reciprocity: fewer cheap imports that hollow out Indian industry, more investment into Indian manufacturing, and far greater scrutiny of capital flows.
Domestic Reform: The real pivot is internal. By simplifying rules, clearing bottlenecks, and drawing in global capital, India seeks not autarky but resilience. The goal is to diversify away from Chinese supply chains, insulate against shocks, and chart a growth path rooted in its own strengths.
Taken together, this is not confrontation for its own sake, nor alignment at any cost. It is a strategy of calculation: freeze what cannot be solved, level the field in trade, and build at home. Trump’s theatrics may dominate television, but India’s quiet grind will shape the balance of power in Asia.
Conclusion: Borders Define Balance
India’s path is not dramatic, and it will frustrate hawks at home and allies abroad. Yet it is the only realistic course. China will keep probing at the border, and India will keep refusing to yield. Trump will keep shouting from afar, and India will keep treating it as background noise. The real contest is on the ground in Asia, not in American campaign rallies.
The border defines policy. Delhi will not surrender to Beijing’s pressure, nor bend to Washington’s demands. Power lies in patience — freezing the conflict where it cannot be solved, recalibrating trade on firmer terms, and building resilience at home. Quieter than Trump’s theatrics, India’s strategy is harder, slower, but ultimately more durable.
Borders and balances — that is India’s power play. The rest is posturing.
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse