India's 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a popular mandate won or a party rejected?
India's 2024 Lok Sabha elections: a popular mandate won or a party rejected?
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THIS IS AN ARTICLE WRITTEN PURELY AS AN OPINION OF CURRENT AFFAIRS BY THE AUTHOR
17 July 2024
Chaitanya Nitin Harak
2024 has been a year of general elections for many countries, including those for the European Parliament. From the Americas to Europe, Asia, and Oceania, the global population participated in the popular democratic expression known as “elections.” Although I will focus on India’s elections here, the wave of global elections has had a significant, if not colossal, impact. The immense sum of capital invested on both sides of the political spectrum alone demonstrates the significance of this election. The public expected an even greater increase in the vote share for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and they got that.
With 229.07 million votes in the 2019 elections, the NDA managed to gain almost 7 million more votes, reaching a staggering 235.97 million votes in 2024. An unprecedented third term for PM Modi proceeded without much doubt or hindrance. While the BJP itself expected more seats in the third term, the 240-seat victory is not the defeat that the Indian Right-Wing (IRW) portrays it to be.
Recent leaks from sources indicated a massive influx of around 7,500 crores in the couple months before 2024 elections alone; routed through various NGOs to influence voters and perpetrate voter fraud. This was notably seen in states like West Bengal, where fake voter IDs was rampant issue among illegal immigrants, worsening any remaining electoral integrity in an already sensitive environment. The impact of these fraudulent activities on the election process was very profound, casting doubts on the legitimacy of election outcomes, further eroding my trust in the electoral system. Meanwhile, Manipur faced then and continues to face militantcy and violent terrorism with the backing of foreign forces like China and the West. The persistent threat of violence created then, and still does according to me, an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty in the public, hindering the effective functioning of democratic institutions.
Ted Shaffrey/AP
In South India, divisive politics based on caste and religious identities exacerbated social tensions, overshadowing national welfare, which should be the sole purpose of the Government. Political leaders exploited these divisions for electoral gain, deepening societal rifts and undermining efforts to promote unity and development. Figures like MK Stalin exemplified divisive politics in India with their religious extremism, reflecting India's fragile, minority-appeasing political landscape. This approach to governance not only alienated significant segments of the population but also detracted from addressing pressing national issues such as economic growth and social welfare.
Stringer/Reuters
In border states like Punjab and Kashmir, decades-long drug trafficking and terror activities continued to complicate electoral dynamics, much as they did 20 years ago. The drug trade kept fueling addiction and funding separatist movements like the Khalistanis and the “Azad Kashmir” Pakistani militants in Kashmir. These militants manipulated their ties to intimidate voters, undermining democratic integrity. The entrenched networks of drug trafficking and terrorism posed significant challenges to law enforcement and counter-terrorism efforts, requiring coordinated action to dismantle these operations and restore order. The cumulative effect of these various factors paints., for me, a troubling picture of the state of free and democratic elections in India, going back to the concerns of foreign intervention that I mention throughout the article.
The pre-election polls had nearly unanimously predicted the vote share for the NDA to be around 43% on average, with a general seat distribution of 330+ for the NDA. Meanwhile, they projected a 30% average vote share with 90+ seats for the big-tent Opposition bloc, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDI Alliance), led by the Indian National Congress (INC). However, the NDA lost a total of 60 seats compared to the 2019 elections, while the INDI Alliance had a net gain of 143 seats. This raises the question: where did these seats come from?
The INDI Alliance, a big-tent Opposition bloc, aimed primarily at keeping the NDA out of power. This coalition raised questions about how they would remain united if they did come to power, despite its seeming improbability. In Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party strategically divided votes along caste lines. They were aided by influential figures and media, which exacerbated tensions and displaced indigenous communities. These issues highlighted challenges to Indian democratic values, which faced significant corruption and foreign interference. These factors undermined the 2024 elections and demanded urgent electoral reforms to protect citizen voices and ensure governance integrity.
In Maharashtra, the voting pattern was a complex mix, with all parties receiving support in a seemingly haphazard manner. However, one clear reason for the BJP's loss in core constituencies was the lack of effort on their part. Their workers became complacent and did not engage in the expected level of door-to-door campaigning. This complacency was a significant factor in their electoral setbacks.
India TV
ANI
Overall, the 2024 elections underscored the dynamic and unpredictable nature of Indian politics, where strategic maneuvers and grassroots efforts can significantly alter the political landscape. The results also emphasize the importance of addressing systemic issues such as corruption and foreign interference to strengthen the democratic process. The significant seat changes for both the NDA and the INDI Alliance reflect the shifting allegiances of the voter and evolving priorities of the Indian electorate.
Who won the Mandate in the end?
Who won the Mandate in the end?
A good question indeed, but I believe in the end the winner takes all. And with the third term seeming like a continuation of the second, PM Modi and the BJP appear to have won the mandate. In a nation where many governments have fallen all too often due to coalition collapses, this election result still places the electorate's faith in the BJP-led NDA. This, to me, seems like a perfect explanation. Only after PM Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1960s has PM Narendra Modi remained in office for a third term in the 2020s.
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